Image from the Juxtapoz website...no photo attribution was given on the site.
Oh, and if you're in the Delridge neighborhood tonite, check this out at the Skylark; it's a great venue:
friday, october 31
8pm COME AS YOU AREN'T (2nd Annual Halloween Battle Of The Bands! Judges: nadamucho.com) All bands will be disguised as other bands, playing three songs each. Extra points if fans are dressed as the band's fans! Confirmed acts vying for the Golden Cowbell: NORMAN BAKER as The Decemberists SPEEDMOP as the Go-Go's BONE CAVE BALLET as Duran Duran M. BISON as The Kinks HELEN CHANCE as The Yeah Yeah Yeahs WE WROTE THE BOOK ON CONNECTORS as The Beastie Boys H IS FOR HUNGRY DANIELLI as Nirvana APPLE WAR as QueennDrink specials: $2 Session bottles/$4 glasses of Pinot Noir (normally $8)nnn
http://www.skylarkcafe.com/
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
The Futurama of Sarah Palin
I don't want to be cocky but barring any sort of upset or skullduggery, it looks like McPalin is going to lose next Tuesday which raises the question, "Where does Sarah Palin go from here?" (Sadly, for Grandpa Walnuts, it does NOT raise the question, "Where does John McCain go from here?" because the answer is self-evident; he goes back to the Senate for two more years to be followed by a flaccid Flagstaffian retirement with his shrewishly frigid wife before a sad and prolongingly dull and underreported death...)
Unlike McCain, Sarah Palin does have a future in politics; Andy Warhol prophesied that in the future, everyone would be famous for 15 minutes but he never said that some people would be famous for a lot longer than that. Governor Palin has already had her 15 minutes and I'm afraid she's got several more increments of a quarter hour up her Neiman Marxist sleeve. I'm guessing that by the end of November we're going to hear a major publishing house announce they've signed Palin to a seven figure book deal. Despite what she implied in her Vargas interview, Palin does have to go back to Alaska to finish the job she currently holds; Governor of Alaska. She has two more years to serve in Juneau which is a long way from Washington and New York. (I'm guessing she's going to be racking up a lot of frequent flyer miles with Alaskan Air.) But what does she do in 2010 when her term expires? Run for re-election? Run for Senator Lisa Murkowski's seat? Announce her presidential campaign? Go the pundit route with her own Fox show or a blog? Or go the conservative think tank route?
I'm guessing she won't run for re-election as governor; Alaska is a long way from everything and not a convenient hub to expand a national political career. Running for Murkowski's seat is an option, but the GOP could object to her running against a Republican incumbent. (And Palin ousted Murkowski's dad for the governor's chair; the Murkowskis would put up a bitter fight to ward off Palin). Palin is also facing some sliding approval ratings in her home state and running for a Senate seat as a stop-gap on her way to a presidential run could likely work against her. I'm going to go for the pundit/think tank route for Palin which would allow her maximum public exposure as well as allow her to travel the country building up financial and logistical support for a 2012 run for the White House. (Of course, this would mean she'd have to live a good chunk of the year in that bastion of Socialism and UnReal America, the NY/DC corridor, but that's the price a patriot has to make to further her noble cause...sadly, the hunting by helicopter options are few but on the plus side, there's some nice peaceful "schools" for Trig to attend...)
Regardless the option she chooses, you can bet that Sarah Palin will remain in the news, (there's a wedding to plan!) and a whole lot of Republicans in this country will be paying at least 4 figures to enjoy a fish or chicken dinner with the governor in a Marriot or Hyatt hotel banquet room near YOU...
Image: Zina Saunders http://www.zinasaunders.com/
I'm feeling much better!
and I'm looking fabulous and feeling perkier than the nipples on a British secret agent!
(Damn, that man is fine and I normally don't go for smooth blondes, but Holy Frijole, Daniel Craig DOES make me feel all funny "down there"...)
I'm still busy at work, finishing up a monster project and chagrined that I'm cheated out of some very rare OT because I'm unable to work from home due to my state of MacHood...obviously, it's a Microsoft conspiracy to keep me and all Mac users down and out...
(Damn, that man is fine and I normally don't go for smooth blondes, but Holy Frijole, Daniel Craig DOES make me feel all funny "down there"...)
I'm still busy at work, finishing up a monster project and chagrined that I'm cheated out of some very rare OT because I'm unable to work from home due to my state of MacHood...obviously, it's a Microsoft conspiracy to keep me and all Mac users down and out...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Sick.
The flu crap that's been going around has laid me low; I'm still working, 'cause of course, I don't get any paid sick days as a contract worker, but due to a lack of energy and the fact that I actually have to work on a big project, I'm not posting anything for awhile....I promise I'll make it up to the six or seven people who actually check this blog out...In the meantime, enjoy the news that McCain is currently less than 8 points ahead of Obama in McCain's home state of Arizona and in that reddest of Red States Mississippi, (which, to me, isn't that huge of a shock considering that nearly a third of Mississippi is African American....)
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Worth Repeating
Savage and various hipster snobs are on the anti-shopping/tv is bad bandwagon over on SLOG...I had to point this out:
I've noticed that people who say they hate to shop or claim that they don't shop, frequently have the latest tech gadgets, shelves full of books and cds and dvds and a closet or garage full of sports equipment. Many of them spend hours wandering around Best Buy or Bailey/Coy or Silver Platters or REI looking/drooling/buying their favorite shit. People who claim they hate/don't shop, really mean that they hate to shop for boring stuff/necessities and disdain people who like to shop for the stuff they aren't interested in. The whole, "I'm a better person because I don't like to shop for so called frivolous things" is just a lot of elitist, hipster bullshit. The notion that it's cool to spend two hours in Powell's or a Virgin Records because you're a book/music lover but it's not cool to spend your time looking for a cute bargain outfit or some discount art or knick-knacks is hypocritical.
And, I won't even get started on the whole, "I feel superior because I don't own/watch television, yet I spend 4 hours a day on the Internet watching the same media in a different format" defense of many a hipster...
I want to add that I don't consider myself a frivolous shopper...I HATE paying full price and I'm not one of those, "if it's more expensive, it's better" people. I'm also not a chronic or compulsive shopper. My favorite kind of shopping is finding a flea market/antique mall and wandering around and looking for cute, funky bargains.
I do freely admit to watching too much tv and I'd like to watch less, but I'm not a snob about it. There's no difference between sitting on your ass watching prime time tv for three hours everynight and sitting around on your ass cruising the Internet for three hours and watching shit on YouTube.
And why is it always WOMEN who are portrayed as shopaholics in cartoons and ads? It's really sexist; plenty of men, both gay and straight, like to buy shit. Apparently, a guy constantly going to Home Depot to buy tools and DIY stuff and hang out with his buddies isn't the same as a woman frivolously spending time at the mall buying clothes and household goods...
Friday, October 17, 2008
Sorry...I haven't posted much.
I've been busy working on a bitch of project plagued by a slow tool and runtime errors which doesn't allow me any time to play on here...and I'm so mentally fatigued by the end of the day, I have no interest in blogging from home.
I also rejoined my gym, at Seattle Central, to help me lose weight and lower my cholesterol and keep me from wasting every evening vegging out in front of the tube watching Dancing with the Stars, Top Model and The Greatest Loser while scarfing down Ghiradelli bittersweet chocolate chips...
I also rejoined my gym, at Seattle Central, to help me lose weight and lower my cholesterol and keep me from wasting every evening vegging out in front of the tube watching Dancing with the Stars, Top Model and The Greatest Loser while scarfing down Ghiradelli bittersweet chocolate chips...
She's checking to see who's been naughty and nice...
Life on Mars is stillborn
The second episode of the American remake of the hit British television series, Life on Mars, aired last night on ABC and I'm almost ready to throw in the towel. If you're not aware, LOM is about a contemporary police detective who is seriously injured in a hit and run and "wakes up" as a cop in 1973 NYC. The original series was critically praised and there were high hopes for the new version, but it's just failing miserably. The writing is atrocious; characters are cliches and the plots meandering and because the writing is so abysmal and the directing not much better, the excellent cast is floundering and in the case of Harvey Keitel, actually kind of embarassing in their performances. And, for some reason, the writers and production team feel that it's necessary to constantly reinforce the message that we're in 1973...we're overwhelmed with excessive amounts of set dressing, costumes, songs, cultural references and stereotypes of the era to make sure the audience is aware, "Hey! It's 1973! Isn't it kooky?!?!?" I think most of the problem is with the show runners, the producing/writing team hired to run the show; it's a bunch of hacks from that crappy Dawsons Creek/One Tree Hill wannabe October Road that aired on ABC over a year ago. If I were the execs at ABC, I would have checked into the availability of some of the writer/producers of Buffy the Vampire Slayer. They had a crackerjack team that knew how to blend drama and fantasy elements so that one didn't overwhelm the other. (Also, they come up with brilliant scripts and very intelligent dialogue week after week for 7 years). Oh, and ABC, dump your current set and costume designers and cinematographers and hire some of the people who worked on the Tales of the City miniseries, or the movie Zodiac, or even That 70's Show...they were all much, much better at recreating a believable and realistic version of the era than the hacks currently hired.
Pictured: Lead actor Jason O'Mara one of the few good reasons to watch the show...
Pictured: Lead actor Jason O'Mara one of the few good reasons to watch the show...
Friday, October 10, 2008
Ouch II
You know it's a sad day in Republicanville, when it's less than four weeks to election day and the Republican's are only polling 3 percentage points above the Democrats in the Deep Red/Bible Beltin' South...From Pollster.com:
InsiderAdvantage
Mode: IVR
Georgia 10/9, 509 LV, 4%
McCain 49, Obama 46
Ohio 10/9, 531 LV, 4%
Obama 49, McCain 44
What are the Republicans going to do? Their party is old and out of touch; one look at the crowd at the RNC in St Paul made that abundately clear. Middle of the road conservatives are looking with great distaste at the Fundamentalist Christian/Redneck Racist wing of the party and not liking what they see. And the twentysomething, young conservatives might proclaim fiscally conservative values and embrace themes of patriotism and pride for their country but they're not attracted to the racist/sexist/homophobic rhetoric of the Far Right; they grew up with and studied with and now work with blacks, and Asians, and Hispanics and Jews and have female teachers and bosses and feel comfortable hanging out with their gay siblings and cousins and co-workers and friends. Even though they might be good church goers and have a fondness for deer hunting, that doesn't mean they want hypocritical Bible pounding preachers and beer-swilling, pig-eyed Klan members dictating their political beliefs. And with the racistly tinged nastiness of the McCain campaign, the Republicans have already apparently written off people of color as desirable members of the Republican Party. If they don't do something soon, to muzzle the extreme right and start bringing in the young and the non-white, the Republican Party might find itself old, impotent and irrelevant in modern society.
InsiderAdvantage
Mode: IVR
Georgia 10/9, 509 LV, 4%
McCain 49, Obama 46
Ohio 10/9, 531 LV, 4%
Obama 49, McCain 44
What are the Republicans going to do? Their party is old and out of touch; one look at the crowd at the RNC in St Paul made that abundately clear. Middle of the road conservatives are looking with great distaste at the Fundamentalist Christian/Redneck Racist wing of the party and not liking what they see. And the twentysomething, young conservatives might proclaim fiscally conservative values and embrace themes of patriotism and pride for their country but they're not attracted to the racist/sexist/homophobic rhetoric of the Far Right; they grew up with and studied with and now work with blacks, and Asians, and Hispanics and Jews and have female teachers and bosses and feel comfortable hanging out with their gay siblings and cousins and co-workers and friends. Even though they might be good church goers and have a fondness for deer hunting, that doesn't mean they want hypocritical Bible pounding preachers and beer-swilling, pig-eyed Klan members dictating their political beliefs. And with the racistly tinged nastiness of the McCain campaign, the Republicans have already apparently written off people of color as desirable members of the Republican Party. If they don't do something soon, to muzzle the extreme right and start bringing in the young and the non-white, the Republican Party might find itself old, impotent and irrelevant in modern society.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Daddy George Clooney to audtion for Joe Gage's "Men's Room IV: Piss on Pop"
He can get on my nerves sometimes and he really isn't my type, but this IS a hot pic... The 'stache and haircut must be for his role as a military dude in "Men Who Stare At Goats", a bizarrely plotted film set to begin filming this month. Here's a blurb on it from a site called Cinematical:
http://www.cinematical.com/2008/09/14/ewan-mcgregor-kevin-spacey-jeff-bridges-stare-at-goats/
Personally, I think I'd rather see Clooney in "Men's Room IV"...
I got the picture from Defamer.
According to The Hollywood Reporter, Ewan McGregor, Kevin Spacey, and Jeff Bridges are joining George Clooney, under Grant Heslov's direction.
The film is based on Jon Ronson's book of the same title, and follows his investigation into the secret wing of the U.S. First Earth Battalion, a paranormal research unit created in 1978. Its goal was to create "Warrior Monks," supersoldiers who could do all sorts of comic-booky things like walk through walls, become invisible, read minds, and kill creatures by staring at them long enough. One soldier in Ronson's book claims he killed a hamster and a goat doing just that.
http://www.cinematical.com/2008/09/14/ewan-mcgregor-kevin-spacey-jeff-bridges-stare-at-goats/
Personally, I think I'd rather see Clooney in "Men's Room IV"...
I got the picture from Defamer.
Monday, October 6, 2008
McCain losing in North Carolina
Latest poll from Public Policy Polling finds Obama leading McCain 50% to 44% and Political Wire, the site I got this info from, also notes that:
How dumb are the Republicans? The polling has been bad for the Republicans for well over a month in North Carolina and not just for President. The incumbent Senator, Elizabeth Dole, who until recently seemed like a sure bet for the Republicans, has also been trailing in the polls for the last few weeks. You'd think that the minute the polling started to look a little bit crappy they whould have sent McCain down there for at least a brief visit to shore things up.
It's amazing that the Republicans, who in recent years revolutionized the modern campaign process which led to their huge victories all over the country, have so drastically dropped the ball this election cycle. Has the last eight years of corruption, scandal and criminality really sapped all the life and common sense out of them? They've become a politcal party of the old, the tired and the enfeebled. We're watching the Republican National Party fall apart in front of our very eyes. Are they just wanting the Democrats to win big now, to deal with all the Republican made messes, so they can seize power again in four years if the Dems don't succeed?
I thought that for awhile, but the way the Republicans are flailing, it really looks like they're out of touch with reality and the needs of the American public. The Apocalypse of the Republican Party is a spectacle both horrifying and sadly, well-earned.
And in other polling, Obama continues to pull ahead in Ohio, Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Florida...Instead of barely winning 270 EV, Obama is starting to look like he could potentially top 370 or even 400 EV.
Interesting: Obama's numbers rise every time he makes a visit to the state. McCain hasn't visited in five months.
How dumb are the Republicans? The polling has been bad for the Republicans for well over a month in North Carolina and not just for President. The incumbent Senator, Elizabeth Dole, who until recently seemed like a sure bet for the Republicans, has also been trailing in the polls for the last few weeks. You'd think that the minute the polling started to look a little bit crappy they whould have sent McCain down there for at least a brief visit to shore things up.
It's amazing that the Republicans, who in recent years revolutionized the modern campaign process which led to their huge victories all over the country, have so drastically dropped the ball this election cycle. Has the last eight years of corruption, scandal and criminality really sapped all the life and common sense out of them? They've become a politcal party of the old, the tired and the enfeebled. We're watching the Republican National Party fall apart in front of our very eyes. Are they just wanting the Democrats to win big now, to deal with all the Republican made messes, so they can seize power again in four years if the Dems don't succeed?
I thought that for awhile, but the way the Republicans are flailing, it really looks like they're out of touch with reality and the needs of the American public. The Apocalypse of the Republican Party is a spectacle both horrifying and sadly, well-earned.
And in other polling, Obama continues to pull ahead in Ohio, Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Florida...Instead of barely winning 270 EV, Obama is starting to look like he could potentially top 370 or even 400 EV.
Mildred
Film director and Portland resident Todd Haynes told Willamette Week that he plans to film a television remake of "Mildred Pierce", the James M. Cain novel that was turned into an iconic Joan Crawford/Warner Brothers film in 1945. Crawford won her only Oscar for her role as a divorced waitress turned entrepreneur who has some parenting issues with her spoiled rotten daughter. Haynes would base the film on the original source novel and not the film, and set his film in the book's Thirties/Depression era setting as opposed to the 40's wartime setting of the original film. Read more about it, here: http://wweek.com/wwire/?p=13536
I like the IDEA of a new Mildred Pierce (it's one of my favorite films), and I think Haynes will do a good job, but I'm not sure it's the smartest career move for him. He's already done the old film hommage with "Far From Heaven", his take on the Douglas Sirk films of the 1950's. Personally, I'd like to see him do something a little more contemporary, more along the lines of "Safe", the 1995 Julianne Moore starring film about a woman who finds herself allergic to her consumerist lifestyle.
I have to admit that I have an idea for a stage piece based on Mildred that would be more in the vein of parody/travesty and involve music by Stephen Sondheim, but I don't want to reveal more than that. I also know that beloved Seattle actor Nick Garrison has his own idea of how he'd like to stage Mildred as well, and it's a pretty clever idea. Hopefully, someday, Seattle will get to see one or both of these versions...
I like the IDEA of a new Mildred Pierce (it's one of my favorite films), and I think Haynes will do a good job, but I'm not sure it's the smartest career move for him. He's already done the old film hommage with "Far From Heaven", his take on the Douglas Sirk films of the 1950's. Personally, I'd like to see him do something a little more contemporary, more along the lines of "Safe", the 1995 Julianne Moore starring film about a woman who finds herself allergic to her consumerist lifestyle.
I have to admit that I have an idea for a stage piece based on Mildred that would be more in the vein of parody/travesty and involve music by Stephen Sondheim, but I don't want to reveal more than that. I also know that beloved Seattle actor Nick Garrison has his own idea of how he'd like to stage Mildred as well, and it's a pretty clever idea. Hopefully, someday, Seattle will get to see one or both of these versions...
Old
It was my birthday Saturday. The wind was incredibly irritating; I finally ventured out of my house at about 4pm, walked a block and a half and was nearly blown over and immediately returned to the house. That futile excursion helped put me into a foul food, not much aided by dwelling on my advanced age and lack of life accomplishments. Fortunately, the wind died down by early evening and I was able to enjoy my evening out at Tango with friends/family and gorged myself on Queso Fundido and other Spanish nibbles. It was my second consecutive night of Hibernian treats; I went to Olivar, the new Spanish restaurant across from the Harvard Exit, on Friday night with my friends Lou and Barbara. The food there is quite good, and the prices aren't bad, (dinner for four, w/o wine was $120) but the acoustics are horrible; we sat next to a very loud table of four and had a difficult time listening to our own conversation. Oh, and the place is popular; they were able to squeeze us in at 8.30pm but only barely so apparently it's a place where it might be good to make reservations if you're going on a weekend.
The picture is a clue to my great age...among other things.
The picture is a clue to my great age...among other things.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Hate to say it, but...
Palin can be kind of adorable. I'm not sure if it's the syrupy, "dontcha know" accent or the little winks and smiles but she IS a cutie pie. However, those qualities qualify her to be your favorite cousin to hang out with at holiday gatherings but not to become Vice-President of the United States...
And Biden did a good job by not being too blustery or Foghorn Leghorny and keeping to the facts and harping on the Bush-McCain link. He came across as the friendly uncle who'd bail you out of a jam but you'd have to put up with a long-winded lecture on responsibility.
And Biden did a good job by not being too blustery or Foghorn Leghorny and keeping to the facts and harping on the Bush-McCain link. He came across as the friendly uncle who'd bail you out of a jam but you'd have to put up with a long-winded lecture on responsibility.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
McCain pulls out of Michigan without cumming...
The McCain campaign has confirmed that they're reducing their presence in Michigan to concentrate on states they think they can take from Obama: Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin, despite the fact that Obama has 3 to 5 point leads in all those states and they traditionally vote Democratic.
It's fairly obvious that the McCain campaign is financially strapped. They chose to take federal money for their campaign which precludes them from public fundraising, while Obama chose to not go that route and can spend as much money as he can raise, which so far, has worked to his advantage. In past years, the Republicans didn't have to spend much in states like Virginia, or North Carolina, or Indiana but Obama has made serious inroads in those states which requires the Republicans to spend large amounts of money for expensive commercials and man large campaign offices in states that had long been thought to be solidly Red. (The McCain campaign didn't even bother to staff Indiana thinking it had it in the bag.) And Florida, a state with 4 expensive media markets; Miami, Orlando, Tampa/St Pete's and Jacksonville is very competitive this year thus eating up millions of McCain dollars for commercials and field offices they had hoped they wouldn't have needed. Giving up Michigan, was probably the only move they had left if they wanted to spend the money where it would do the most good. Concentrating on Minnesota/Wisconsin allows them to focus their ad buys to Minneapolis/St Paul, a media market that covers most of Minnesota and the western half of Wisconsin. In a sense, geography and the proximity of media markets play a major role in the shape of a modern political campaign.
That's the problem with Michigan and the reasoning behind the McCain campaign's decision to pull out; it all boils down to geography. Michigan is an oddly shaped state with a densely populated lower peninsula and a sparsely populated upper peninsula, surrounded by huge bodies of water, (The Great Lakes) and bordering Canada along it's eastern half. Spending huge amounts of ad money in Detroit means that half that money is being spent on spreading the McCain message to the fine citizens of south central Ontario. Dumping Michigan makes far more sense than dumping Pennsylvania, where at least ad dollars spent in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will also bleed over into respectively, New Jersey and Eastern Ohio. And, McCain can't afford to blow off Ohio. The race there is still very tight and McCain has to take Ohio or Florida if he wants to have any choice of winning. But Ohio's 20EV come at a huge cost; it's a large state with three major media markets, (Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus) and three mini-major markets, (Dayton, Akron and Toledo). That's millions and millions of dollars of ad time to remain viable in Ohio.
And this is another option for Obama to defeat McCain. If the Obama campaign has the money to spare, they might start running more ads in Texas and the rest of the deep South. The latest polls had McCain only 9 points ahead in Texas and 8 points in Mississippi. If the Obama campaign were to start doing more campaigning and ad buying in those markets and the poll numbers continued to improve for Obama, then the strapped McCain campaign would be forced to start running in states they don't have the money to compete in. Having to spend tens of millions of dollars for ads in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio would probably bankrupt the Republicans.
It's fairly obvious that the McCain campaign is financially strapped. They chose to take federal money for their campaign which precludes them from public fundraising, while Obama chose to not go that route and can spend as much money as he can raise, which so far, has worked to his advantage. In past years, the Republicans didn't have to spend much in states like Virginia, or North Carolina, or Indiana but Obama has made serious inroads in those states which requires the Republicans to spend large amounts of money for expensive commercials and man large campaign offices in states that had long been thought to be solidly Red. (The McCain campaign didn't even bother to staff Indiana thinking it had it in the bag.) And Florida, a state with 4 expensive media markets; Miami, Orlando, Tampa/St Pete's and Jacksonville is very competitive this year thus eating up millions of McCain dollars for commercials and field offices they had hoped they wouldn't have needed. Giving up Michigan, was probably the only move they had left if they wanted to spend the money where it would do the most good. Concentrating on Minnesota/Wisconsin allows them to focus their ad buys to Minneapolis/St Paul, a media market that covers most of Minnesota and the western half of Wisconsin. In a sense, geography and the proximity of media markets play a major role in the shape of a modern political campaign.
That's the problem with Michigan and the reasoning behind the McCain campaign's decision to pull out; it all boils down to geography. Michigan is an oddly shaped state with a densely populated lower peninsula and a sparsely populated upper peninsula, surrounded by huge bodies of water, (The Great Lakes) and bordering Canada along it's eastern half. Spending huge amounts of ad money in Detroit means that half that money is being spent on spreading the McCain message to the fine citizens of south central Ontario. Dumping Michigan makes far more sense than dumping Pennsylvania, where at least ad dollars spent in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will also bleed over into respectively, New Jersey and Eastern Ohio. And, McCain can't afford to blow off Ohio. The race there is still very tight and McCain has to take Ohio or Florida if he wants to have any choice of winning. But Ohio's 20EV come at a huge cost; it's a large state with three major media markets, (Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus) and three mini-major markets, (Dayton, Akron and Toledo). That's millions and millions of dollars of ad time to remain viable in Ohio.
And this is another option for Obama to defeat McCain. If the Obama campaign has the money to spare, they might start running more ads in Texas and the rest of the deep South. The latest polls had McCain only 9 points ahead in Texas and 8 points in Mississippi. If the Obama campaign were to start doing more campaigning and ad buying in those markets and the poll numbers continued to improve for Obama, then the strapped McCain campaign would be forced to start running in states they don't have the money to compete in. Having to spend tens of millions of dollars for ads in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio would probably bankrupt the Republicans.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Some new polling from Time/CNN
CNN / TIME / ORC
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)
Florida 9/28-30, 770 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 51, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 1
Minnesota 9/28-30, 849 LV, 3.5%
Obama 54, McCain 43
Obama 53, McCain 41, Nader 2, Barr 1, McKinney 0
Missouri 9/28-30, 744 LV, 3.5%
Obama 49, McCain 48
Obama 47, McCain 46, Nader 2, Barr 2
Nevada 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 49, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 1, McKinney 0
Virginia 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 53, McCain 44
Obama 52, McCain 42, Nader 2, Barr 2, McKinney 0
Over 50% everywhere but Missouri which is still very close.
And here's a chart from FiveThirtyEight.com with polls from yesterday with some great numbers from PA, OH, FL, NJ, and VA.
I'm itching to see some new numbers from presumed McCain states, esp. Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi. I don't think Obama can take those states, and he hasn't really tried very hard, but I'm guessing that the numbers are closer than you think, esp. in LA and MS, two states that are nearly 1/3 African-American. I'm still very convinced that the pollsters don't do a very good job with minorities or the young, both big Obama supporters.
All the recent polling has been bad news for McCain but I'm not going to get cocky about it...we've still got a month to go.
I'm cautiously very optimistic.
I got this info from Pollster.com
UPDATE: I guess the pollster.com fairies heard me; here's some new polls from the heart of Red America. McCain having less than a 10 point lead in TX and MS is not good news for the Republicans; MS is now within the margin of error and could potentially turn into a swing state! And those senate races are tightening up, esp in MS where Wicker was considered a shoo-in and Noriega is only down by 7 in Texas. If Hispanic Dems turn out in droves in Texas to vote for Obama, that can only help Noriega. The Dems might hit 60 seats in the Senate after all.
Rasmussen Reports
Mode: IVR
Mississippi 9/30, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 52, Obama 44
Sen: Wicker (R-i) 49, Musgrove (D) 47
Tennessee 9/29, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 58, Obama 39
Sen: Alexander (R-i) 56, Tuke (D) 32
Texas 9/29, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 52, Obama 43
Sen: Cornyn (R-i) 50, Noriega (D) 43
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)
Florida 9/28-30, 770 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 51, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 1
Minnesota 9/28-30, 849 LV, 3.5%
Obama 54, McCain 43
Obama 53, McCain 41, Nader 2, Barr 1, McKinney 0
Missouri 9/28-30, 744 LV, 3.5%
Obama 49, McCain 48
Obama 47, McCain 46, Nader 2, Barr 2
Nevada 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 49, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 1, McKinney 0
Virginia 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 53, McCain 44
Obama 52, McCain 42, Nader 2, Barr 2, McKinney 0
Over 50% everywhere but Missouri which is still very close.
And here's a chart from FiveThirtyEight.com with polls from yesterday with some great numbers from PA, OH, FL, NJ, and VA.
I'm itching to see some new numbers from presumed McCain states, esp. Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi. I don't think Obama can take those states, and he hasn't really tried very hard, but I'm guessing that the numbers are closer than you think, esp. in LA and MS, two states that are nearly 1/3 African-American. I'm still very convinced that the pollsters don't do a very good job with minorities or the young, both big Obama supporters.
All the recent polling has been bad news for McCain but I'm not going to get cocky about it...we've still got a month to go.
I'm cautiously very optimistic.
I got this info from Pollster.com
UPDATE: I guess the pollster.com fairies heard me; here's some new polls from the heart of Red America. McCain having less than a 10 point lead in TX and MS is not good news for the Republicans; MS is now within the margin of error and could potentially turn into a swing state! And those senate races are tightening up, esp in MS where Wicker was considered a shoo-in and Noriega is only down by 7 in Texas. If Hispanic Dems turn out in droves in Texas to vote for Obama, that can only help Noriega. The Dems might hit 60 seats in the Senate after all.
Rasmussen Reports
Mode: IVR
Mississippi 9/30, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 52, Obama 44
Sen: Wicker (R-i) 49, Musgrove (D) 47
Tennessee 9/29, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 58, Obama 39
Sen: Alexander (R-i) 56, Tuke (D) 32
Texas 9/29, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 52, Obama 43
Sen: Cornyn (R-i) 50, Noriega (D) 43
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