Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Some new polling from Time/CNN

Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Florida 9/28-30, 770 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 51, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 1

Minnesota 9/28-30, 849 LV, 3.5%
Obama 54, McCain 43
Obama 53, McCain 41, Nader 2, Barr 1, McKinney 0

Missouri 9/28-30, 744 LV, 3.5%
Obama 49, McCain 48
Obama 47, McCain 46, Nader 2, Barr 2

Nevada 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 49, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 1, McKinney 0

Virginia 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 53, McCain 44
Obama 52, McCain 42, Nader 2, Barr 2, McKinney 0

Over 50% everywhere but Missouri which is still very close.

And here's a chart from with polls from yesterday with some great numbers from PA, OH, FL, NJ, and VA.
I'm itching to see some new numbers from presumed McCain states, esp. Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi. I don't think Obama can take those states, and he hasn't really tried very hard, but I'm guessing that the numbers are closer than you think, esp. in LA and MS, two states that are nearly 1/3 African-American. I'm still very convinced that the pollsters don't do a very good job with minorities or the young, both big Obama supporters.

All the recent polling has been bad news for McCain but I'm not going to get cocky about it...we've still got a month to go.

I'm cautiously very optimistic.

I got this info from

UPDATE: I guess the fairies heard me; here's some new polls from the heart of Red America. McCain having less than a 10 point lead in TX and MS is not good news for the Republicans; MS is now within the margin of error and could potentially turn into a swing state! And those senate races are tightening up, esp in MS where Wicker was considered a shoo-in and Noriega is only down by 7 in Texas. If Hispanic Dems turn out in droves in Texas to vote for Obama, that can only help Noriega. The Dems might hit 60 seats in the Senate after all.

Rasmussen Reports
Mode: IVR

Mississippi 9/30, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 52, Obama 44
Sen: Wicker (R-i) 49, Musgrove (D) 47

Tennessee 9/29, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 58, Obama 39
Sen: Alexander (R-i) 56, Tuke (D) 32

Texas 9/29, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 52, Obama 43
Sen: Cornyn (R-i) 50, Noriega (D) 43

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